The Buzz on Business for May 13th, 2024

Volume fell yet again on Friday, and this time it fell to the lowest point since January and to one of the lowest levels in years. We’ll include a link to a chart in the show notes. On May 1^st, US Stocks Total Volume stood at 11.8 billion shares. On Friday, just 9 billion shares traded hands. That’s a 2.8 billion share decline or 24%, in eight trading days. Twenty-four percent.

And during that same time the S&P 500 was up four percent.

Normally, a four percent increase in prices over such a short period of time would attract lots and lots of new money. Fear of missing out is nowhere near as real as in the financial markets. That new money would mean rising volume. It would be said that volume confirmed the rally—and would likely extend it.

But when volume and price diverge, as they have over the last two weeks, it often signals a reversal. So, is a correction on the horizon? What about earnings, inflation, and interest rates? And eight days is a blink of an eye—and over anything longer than the shortest of terms, meaningless.

But in many cases, these things can be self-fulfilling.

Stock Market Report

Stocks finished mixed, mostly higher, on Friday, but volume fell to its lowest level this year.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 125 points, that’s three-tenths of one percent and it closed within striking distance to 40,000 at 39,512.
• The S&P 500 was up two-tenths of one percent, nine points, and it closed at 5,223.
• The NASDAQ Composite finished basically flat. It was off five points and closed at 16,341.
• The small caps had a slightly tougher go of things. The Russell 2000 was off seven-tenths of one percent, fourteen points, and it starts the week this morning at 2,060.

Bond Market Report

Rates were up across the board on Friday.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was up five basis points and it closed at 4.808%.
• The 20-year was up four ticks and now yields 4.742%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil resumed its downtrend. It was off $1.38 and closed at $78.13. Recall that just a month ago, oil was within striking distance of $90.00 a barrel.
• Gold was up $19.20, and a troy ounce now changes hands at $2,369.80.
• Bitcoin was off $1,763.75 and at 4:00 PM ET Friday stood at $60,680.16.

Economic Calendar Dominates this Week

Earnings Season takes the week off this week, but it’s not over. We get a couple of big-name reports next week, although we do get Home Depot and Walmart on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.

The Economic Calendar this week will keep us busy, but all eyes are on the inflation reports due out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Core Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index are expected to have increased by 0.30% and 0.40%, respectively, in April.

These numbers are well above the Fed’s target and way, way too high. Should these reports come in above expectations, the divergence in Volume may be the least of our worries.

All vacations, time off, even sick days have been cancelled here at World Headquarters, so we can crunch all the numbers and analyze what it all means, for you, here on the Buzz.