The Buzz on Business for April 8th, 2024

Stocks bounced on Friday, but volume was off, and markets finished with a loss for the week, which was only the fifth down week since this rally began twenty-four weeks ago. Still, the trend remains in place, and while there is much to worry about, if markets climb a wall-of-worry, stocks still look to have some room to run.

Stock Market Report

Lots of green numbers on the Giant Quote machine here at World Headquarters on Friday, and those green numbers included both interest rates and gold.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 307 points, that’s eight-tenths of a percent and it closed at 38,904.
• The S&P 500 closed at 5,205, up 57 points or 1.10%.
• The Nasdaq Composite was up a stout one and a quarter percent, 199 points, and it starts the week at 16,249.
• The small caps lagged the broader market just a bit. The Russell 2000 posted a ten-point gain, that’s one-half of one percent and it closed at 2,063.

Bond Market Report

Bonds had a tough day as interest rates continued their recent trend upward.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was up over ten basis points and closed at 4.753%.
• The 20-year was up eight ticks and now yields 4.662%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil was off a minuscule $0.08 and closed at $86.67.
• If there was any substance to the idea that lower interest rates supported the price of gold, it certainly didn’t apply on Friday; despite significantly higher rates, gold posted more strong gains. It was up $36.90, and a troy ounce now changes hands at $2,345.40.
• Bitcoin was off $1,068.38 and, at 4:00 PM ET Friday, stood at $67,476.64.
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4th Quarter Earnings Decent, Not Great

Earnings in the fourth quarter of 2023 came in about 4% over the same quarter in 2022. That’s decent. Not great, but decent. Perhaps, more interestingly, since Wall Street is an expectations game, 73% of companies reported earnings above expectations. Again, that’s decent but not great. The historical average is closer to 77% of companies exceeding expectations.

And, as we close the book on Q4 2023, the door on Q1 2024 opens. This Friday, earnings season gets underway. Expectations seem to be all over the place, from gloomy reports to some outlets predicting earnings growth of 10% or more. This is precisely why you shouldn’t pay any attention to those reports.

Buzy Economic Week: Inflation Data Due

We’ve also got a reasonably busy week on the economic calendar this week, but all eyes are focused on Wednesday and Thursday when the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index inflation numbers roll out.

Expectations are that prices increased by 0.30% in March, which is way, way, way too high: roughly double the Fed’s target.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who sent stocks reeling last week with his tiny bit of truth-telling regarding rate cuts, is scheduled to speak again later today. All of us here at the Ministry of Truth will be hanging on his every word, so we can report all of it to you tomorrow here on the Buzz.