The Buzz on Business for April 212nd 2024

We often report, here on the Buzz on Business, that “markets finished mixed.” Meaning one or more of the major indexes on which we regularly report ended the day with gains while the rest finished with losses.

But even when this happens, the indexes remain highly correlated. When one ebbs, they all ebb. When they flow, they drag the laggards along with them. If you laid the charts one on top of one another, they’d all line up pretty much perfectly, even though some may have finished with a gain and some with losses.

That was not the case on Friday. Stocks finished mixed, but they were headed in opposite directions. The Dow opened higher, rallied throughout, and closed near its highs for the day.

The S&P and NASDAQ opened sharply lower, sold off sharply all day long, and closed near their lows.

The Russell 2000 opened lower but managed a modest rally and closed with modest gains.

Divergences like this are rare, exceedingly rare, and typically meaningful, often signaling a change is in the air.

So, what is this one signaling? Beats the heck outta us!

Stock Market Report

A strange day on Wall Street. Stocks finished mixed while volume spiked, and advancing stocks led decliners by almost two to one.

• The Dow Jones Industrials were up 211 points, six-tenths of 1%, and they closed at 37,986.
• The S&P 500 was down nine-tenths of 1%. That’s 44 points, and they closed back below 5000 at 4,967.
• The NASDAQ Composite was off 2.1%, 319 points, and it closed at 15,282.
• The Russell 2000 managed a small gain. It was up. Five points. That’s one-quarter of 1% and closed at 1948.

Bond Market Report

A strange day in the bond market as well. Rates fell throughout most of the day but came back to close, nearly unchanged.

• The 2-year Treasury did close unchanged at 4.988%.
• The 20-year was off 2 ticks and now yields 4.843%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil spiked sharply at the open but sold off throughout the day but hung on for a gain of $0.22, and a barrel will now set you back $82.07.
• Gold had a calm day. It was up $7.10 and closed back above 2,400 at $2402.50.
• Likewise, Bitcoin. It was up $870.74 and finished the day and week at $64,431.16.

Earnings Season is Almost Like Christmas Season!

Over one hundred sixty of America’s biggest corporations report earnings this week. They include such household names as Visa, Tesla, Pepsi, General Motors, Facebook, Qualcomm, IBM, Boeing—that’s an interesting one—Microsoft, Google, Merck, Intel, Exxon, and Chevron, to name just a few.

We can’t wait.

And a Busy Economic Calendar

But even if not a single company reported earnings in the coming week, it would still be an important and exciting news week. The economic calendar is packed to the brim, with important reports rolling out almost every day throughout the week.

Later this morning, we will get some more housing data, building permits, and new home sales. Housing seems to be softening in recent months. We also get the S&P US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. Manufacturing has been strengthening in recent months.

On Tuesday, we will get durable goods orders and the Atlanta Federal Reserves GDP Now report.

Thursday, as usual, brings initial and continuing jobless claims. And this Thursday, we also get Pending Home Sales.

But all of that is small potatoes compared to Friday at 8:30 AM Eastern Time when the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Complex rolls out. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Expectations are inflation grew in March by 0.3%—way too high—with the year-over-year number expected at 2.6%.

Everybody here at the Ministry of Truth is on mandatory double shifts until further notice so that we can collect and analyze all of this data and report all of it to you here on the Buzz.