The Buzz on Business for April 10th, 2024

Sometimes, we think that the best job for us would have been as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. It seems to us that all these guys do is give speeches. We could do that—with one hand tied behind our back.

Speaking of doing the job, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic went on TV on Tuesday and said he expects only one rate cut in 2024. One! It seems like just weeks ago, the consensus was four or five rate cuts in 2024

We’ve been saying for months that the most likely scenario is for no rate cuts in 2024 and maybe none in 2025, either. We said in January that rates should probably be increased.

It’s nice to see the Fed come around to our position. Maybe they should give us a job. Hey, Jerome Powell. Call us!

Stock Market Report

The major indexes finished mixed but little changed on Tuesday. Advancers led decliners and all of it on decent volume as the Street awaits the inflation data due out today and tomorrow.

• Once again, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down less than one-tenth of 1%. It closed at 38,884, off 9 points.
• The Standard and Poor’s 500 was up just a tad over one-tenth of 1%. That’s eight points, and it closed at 5,210.
• The NASDAQ composite was up three-tenths of a percent. That’s 53 points, and it closed at 16,307.
• The small caps were likewise up three-tenths of 1%. That’s seven Russell 2000 points, and they finished at 2081.

Bond Market Report

Rates were down. Bonds were up on the session on Tuesday.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was off five basis points, and it closed at 4.743%.
• The 20-year was off six ticks, and it now yields 4.599%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil was off $1.21 and closed at $85.28.
• Gold closed at $2,370.60. That’s up $8.00 a troy ounce
• And Bitcoin continued to bounce around. It was off $2,537.59 and as of 4:00 PM Eastern Time, a Bitcoin changes hands at $69,090.82.

CPI Complex Due Out at 8:30 AM, ET.

The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, complex rolls out at 8:30 AM Eastern Time this morning. The CPI has always been one of the more closely watched economic indicators, but attention is particularly focused on it today. Inflation has been ticking up. The Fed has publicly deferred long-promised interest rate cuts because inflation has ticked up. And Wall Street traders, as well as grocery shoppers, are hoping for some relief.

Both the CPI and the core CPI are expected to come in at 0.3% month over month for March. The year-over-year number for the CPI is 3.4%, and the expectation for the core CPI, which, of course, excludes the more volatile food and energy, is 3.7%.

If core CPI is pushing 4% in April, there isn’t enough time left in 2024 to get that number down soon enough or far enough to justify a rate cut. Indeed, we believe that if it weren’t an election year, rates would be going up.

Regardless of what happens, we will all be watching closely here at the Ministry of Truth, and we will report it all to you here tomorrow.