The Buzz on Business for August 13th, 2024

Stocks finished mixed but mostly little changed again on Monday, on volume that was as low as we’ve seen for any non-holiday session in a very long time.

The are a couple of possible explanations. The first is the paucity of news. There was nothing—literally nothing—on the earnings calendar and even less on the economic calendar. The inflation data for July begins rolling out today, though, and it’s possible that traders are in a wait-and-see mode.

It might also be that it’s high summer. Everybody is on vacation. And by everybody we mean buyers and sellers. Traders may be in a wait and see mode in the Hamptons or on the Jersey Shore. It could be that we are just in the middle of the summer doldrums.

Thinly traded markets can move dramatically, sometimes. If all the buyers are on vacation and just the sellers show up for work, well, you can imagine.

We suspect though that absent some dramatic inflation data, dramatic one way or the other, that markets will continue to meander.

Maybe we should all go on vacation!

Stock Market Report

Another boring day on Wall Street. Volume was very low. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers by about two to one and nothing much changed. At all.

• The Dow Jones Industrials we off 0.40%, that’s 141 points and they closed at 39,357.
• The S&P 500 finished flat. Unchanged. To be truthful it was up less than one quarter of one POINT. And it closed where it closed on Friday at 5,344.
• The NASDAQ Composite was up 0.20%. That’s 35 points and it stands at 16,781.
• The small caps had a tougher go of things. The Russell 2000 was down 0.90%, that’s 19 points, and they start the day today at 2,062.

Bond Market Report

Bonds likewise meandered all day to finish little changed.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was off four basis points and it closed at 4.021%
• The 20-year was off two ticks and stands at 4.290%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil rallied for the fourth straight day. It was up $2.80, and a barrel now changes hands at $79.64.
• Gold managed a new, all-time closing high. It was up $42.00, and a troy ounce will now set you back $2,510.60.
• And Bitcoin finished with a small loss. It was down $624.36 from Friday’s close and at 4:00 PM ET stood at $59,106.63.

Inflation Concerns Cast a Shadow Over Market Calm

After spiking alarmingly in the first quarter of this year, inflation has moderated in recent months and recent reports have started coming in below expectations.

Over the next two days, we will get some additional data to add to our trend.

The Producer Price Index and the Core Producer Price Index numbers are released later this morning. The forecast is that inflation at the wholesale level, as well as the core figure which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.20%.

That’s above the Fed’s target but not by much. We think Wall Street has been worried, in recent weeks, about the economy softening and are, therefore, building rate cuts, rate cuts designed to stimulate growth, into their expectations. A miss on inflation, a higher-than-expected data point, could spook the handful of traders who are still coming into work in mid-summer.