Market Lull and Economic Heat: A Summer Snapshot

Author: William Walsh

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The Buzz on Business for August 11th, 2024

Friday was a boring day in the markets. Stocks finished mixed but little changed. Especially compared to the dramatic moves we’ve seen lately. Volume was down but about where you’d expect on a Friday in the middle of summer. And there was no news. No economic news, no earnings news. No nothing.

We read a book all day then went out to happy hour. An early happy hour. And it was a bit longer than an hour.

Let’s face it! The Dog Days of summer are here. We wouldn’t be at all surprised if markets wander aimlessly until September. Maybe until the next Fed Meeting.

It’s been a good run, so far this year. We peg the start of the rally to the end of October, last year. Since that date until July 16th, the S&P 500 was up more than 30%. Since then, it’s been off by as much as 10%. It opens today 6% off it’s all time high. Up 24% since November 1st. Not bad. And the economy isn’t gangbusters but it’s not bad. Earnings have been solid. Maybe a little shaky recently but not bad and, if we get some interest rate cuts and stocks get the wind at their back, 2024 could turn out to be a very good year. Even if we get some meandering over the summer.

Stock Market Report

Stocks finished mixed but were mostly just boring all day.

  • The Dow Jones Industrials managed a small gain on Friday. They were up a minuscule 0.10%, that’s 51 points and they open this morning at 39,498.
  • The S&P 500 was up 0.50%. That 25 S&P points and they closed at 5,344.
  • Likewise, the NASDAQ Composite. It was up 0.50% and closed at 16,745 for an 85-point gain.
  • Not so much the small caps. The Russell 2000 was off 0.20% and closed at 2,081, off 4 points.

Bond Market Report

Bonds were likewise mixed on Friday

  • The yield on the 2-year treasury was up two basis points and closed at 4,059%
  • The 20-year was off six ticks and starts the week at 4.312%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

  • Oil extended its recent gains. It was up another $0.65, and a barrel now changes hands at $76.84.
  • Gold was up $5.50, and a troy ounce now changes hands at $2,468.60.
  • And Bitcoin managed a small gain. It was  up $261.80 and at 4:00 PM ET Friday stood at $59,730.99

Economic Calendar Heats Up

The economic and earnings calendars were quiet on Friday and the earnings news looks to stay that way for a while at least. But the economic calendar heats up a bit this week.4

  • The Producer Price Index complex rolls out tomorrow. Followed on Wednesday with the Consumer Price Index. Expectations are that all these measures of inflation went up by 0.20% in July.
  • Thursday, as usual, brings the Initial and Continuing Jobless claims report which has moved markets in recent weeks.
  • We also get the NY and Philadelphia Manufacturing Indexes. And the Industrial Production figures.
  • And Retail Sales for July. A big day on Thursday.
  • Not to be outdone, Friday brings us some data from the housing market the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys.

Assuming anybody shows up for work in lower Manhattan, it should be a busy week. We will do what we do and read, listen, watch and analyze so we can report, all of it, to you, here on the Buzz!

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