The Buzz on Business for July 9th, 2024

It’s Groundhog Day in lower Manhattan. Again!

Again, the major indexes finished mixed, and little changed. Again, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite closed at new all-time highs. Again, the Dow was down and everything else was up. While volume expanded on Monday, it remained relatively low. And advancing and declining stocks fought to an even draw.

When markets are making new highs, whether it be tech stocks or pork bellies, new money typically floods in. Related markets, whether it be soybean futures or small cap stocks, often rally in sympathy. In almost every case, volume expands. In almost every case, enthusiasm is high. We saw that back in October when this rally began. Both are decidedly absent in the present market.

What does it mean? Normally we’d be looking for a correction but we’re not so sure. While that is certainly a possibility, it seems to us that the market is consolidating, marking time, in anticipation of declining interest rates which, if and when they come, could propel stocks to new highs.

Stock Market Report

The Dow falls, new highs on the S&P and NASDAQ but barely as this market continues to confound and confuse—At least it is confusing us!

• As we said, the Dow Jones Industrials were off, but not by much. They closed at 39,345, down just a bit less than one-tenth of one percent or thirty-one points.
• The S&P 500 was up one-tenth of a percent. That’s six points and it closed at 5,573, a new all-time high.
• The NASDAQ Composite was up three-tenths of a percent, that’s fifty-one points and it closed at 18,404, a new all-time high.
• And the small caps had a pretty good day. The Russell 2000 was up six-tenths, that’s twelve points, and it closed at 2,039.

Bond Market Report

Interest rates closed mixed, but little changed on Monday.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury closed at 4.574%, off two basis points.
• The 20-year was off one tick and closed at 4.574%.

Both the 2 and 20 year closed at 4.574. The long-inverted yield curve is no longer inverted. It will be interesting to see the trajectory for rates through the balance of the year.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil suffered its second straight day of losses. It was off $0.91, and a barrel now changes hands at $82.25
• Gold was off $32.80, and a troy ounce will now set you back $2,366.70.
• And Bitcoin was off a minuscule $14.79 and at 4:00 PM ET stood at 56,527.81.

Market Awaits Inflation Data

Nothing on the economic calendar yesterday. Nothing to speak of today, either, although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers his quarterly testimony before Congress. This is likely to generate some fireworks as the political class will surely lobby for interest rate cuts sooner and quicker than is prudent. Inflation should always be Job One with the economy. Unfortunately, it never is, until it’s too late.

The pace of economic data reports picks up as the week rolls on. Of particular interest is the Consumer and Producer Price Index complexes roll out on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

We will do what we do and read, watch, listen and analyze so all you have to do is keep it right here on the Buzz.