Market Rallies After Political Upheaval: The Financial Animal Says Stay Calm 

Author: William Walsh

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The Buzz on Business for July 22nd, 2024 

Here on the Buzz on Business podcast, we studiously avoid discussing partisan politics and, apart from members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, any specific politicians. Primarily because this is not our mission. Our expertise lies in markets and investing and people at all points on and off the political spectrum are investors. 

We also believe that politicians get too much credit and/or blame for economic and financial outcomes. Government policy surely affects the economy but typically with a lag and often with a lag of a decade or more. A claim that this decision by this politician at this time resulted in this immediate economic outcome is always suspect, in our view and typically wildly wrong. 

That said, we feel compelled to comment on the dramatic events that have taken place in the political arena in the last three weeks or so. While there were others, we include President Biden’s poor performance in the debate with former President Trump, the assassination attempt on President Trump’s life, and President Biden’s decision to suspend his reelection campaign. 

We would prefer political stability over any candidate, party or policy. Stocks have performed admirably during the administrations of both Biden and Trump, although Trump has the edge. But the markets have performed well during the administrations of all but one of the presidents who have served during our lifetime who have come from and implemented a wide range of political and economic policies. 

So, speaking strictly from a market performance perspective, we’re agnostic about the presidential contest. We wish President Biden, and whomever replaces him as well as President Trump all the best. 

None have asked our advice but if they had, or do, we believe that cutting the deficit, paying off the debt and fighting inflation are the most important issues facing government and should be the very highest of priorities. 

We have our political philosophy but insofar as it relates to this podcast it reduces to this: We are a cheerleader for the major stock market indexes and for the balances in your investment accounts. 

Stock Market Report 

Stocks bounced around during the first couple of hours but finally found their feet by midday and put-up decent numbers on decent volume. 

  • The Dow Jones Industrials were up 128 points, about three-tenths of a percent and they closed at 40,415. 
  • The S&P 500 was up 1.1% and it closed at 5,564 for a fifty-nine-point gain. 
  • The NASDAQ Composite had a good day. It was up 1.6%, 281 points and closed back above 18,000 at 18,008. 
  • And the small caps led the way on Monday. The Russell 2000 was up a stout 1.70%, that’s thirty-six points and it starts the day today at 2,221. 

Bond Market Report 

Rates were up across the board but not by much. 

  • The 2-year treasury closed yielding 4.521%, up less than one basis point. 
  • The 20-year was up two ticks and closed at 4.576% 

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin 

  • Oil followed through on yesterday’s breakdown. It was off another $0.26 and closed at $78.39. 
  • Gold was down $0.10, a minuscule ten cents and a troy ounce will now set you back $2,400.60. 
  • And Bitcoin had a good day. It was up $1,114.68 and at 4:00 PM ET stood at $68,262.29. 

Earnings Look Good, Economic Calendar Heats Up 

Nine public companies reported earnings during the day on Monday, seven of those met or exceeded expectations for second quarter earnings. Only two missed their sales objective but we will continue to watch for top line misses. 

Dozens of second quarter earnings reports are due out today including Google and Tesla. We will be watching, especially Tesla which missed expectations last quarter. 

Nothing on the economic calendar yesterday. Today, Existing Home Sales are due out. 

The economic and earnings calendars pick up dramatically as the week rolls onward as does the potential for market moving news.  

We will do what we do so all you have to do is keep it right here on the Buzz. 

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