The Buzz on Business for July 15th, 2024 

Friday was a pretty good day on Wall Street. All the major indexes posted gains, volume was down from Thursday’s level but above average and pretty good, the Advance/Decline line was solidly positive, and rates fell across the board. 

Are we back to a normal market? 

Well, maybe. If there is such a thing as a “normal” market, it typically doesn’t rally in the face of bad inflation news—especially bonds—and that is what we got on Friday—we'll cover the numbers in just a moment. 

So, traders and investors could still be out of their minds, or they might have concluded that Friday’s inflation numbers are one bad data point among several that have looked pretty good, that inflation is no longer the threat it has been as recently as four months ago, and that lower interest rates are on the way. 

We are inclined to the later point of view and we’ve, ya know, never been wrong about such things, so,  

Stock Market Report 

A pretty good day for stocks to finish off a pretty good week. The Dow even poked its nose into record territory before settling back at the close. 

• The Dow Jones Industrials posted a six-tenths of one percent gain. That’s 247 points and closed back above 40,000 for the first time in two months at 40,001. 

• The S&P 500 was also up six-tenths. That’s thirty-one points on the S&P and it closed at 5,615. 

• Not to be outdone, the NASDAQ Composite was likewise up six-tenths of one percent and closed at 18,398, up 115 points. 

• The small caps outperformed. The Russell 2000 was up 1.1%, or 23 points and it starts the week at 2,148. 

Bond Market Report 

Rates were down across the board. Not something you’d expect after a disappointing inflation report. 

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was off six basis points and it closed at 4.456% 

• The 20-year was off just a tick, and it now yields 4.505% 

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin 

• Oil was off $0.41, and a barrel now changes hands at $82.21 

• Gold was off a minuscule $2.10, and a troy ounce will now set you back $2,417.70. 

• And Bitcoin managed a small gain. It was up 228.32 and at 4:00 PM ET stood at $67,659.85. 

Inflation Spikes: Stocks and Bonds Shrug 

We were huddled around the telescreen at 8:30 AM ET on Friday and gasped when we saw the print of the Producer Price Index. 

Consensus expectations were that inflation at the wholesale level had increased by 0.10%, which is within, well within, the Fed’s inflation target. 

But what we got was 0.2%, which is outside the Fed’s target. 

Ninety minutes later the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Surveys all, likewise disappointed versus expectations. 

After a scare during the first four months of this year, inflation has seemed to be reliably on the run over the last three months, or so, at least that was what the market seemed to conclude. We don’t get another look at inflation until Friday, the 26^th, when the PCE—the Personal Consumption Expenditures index is released. Expectations are that the core price level DECREASED in June. We shall see. 

Earnings season shifts into full swing this week as a bunch of big, well-known banks release 2nd quarter numbers. So far, the handful of companies that have reported results this season have exceeded expectations for earnings, but several have disappointed on sales. A trend developing? We will be watching. 

We’ve got a busy week ahead of us. Everyone here at the Ministry of Truth will be toiling well into the night so that all you’ve got to do is keep it right here on the Buzz.