The Buzz on Business for June 28th 2024

We’ve commented over the last several weeks on this podcast, of the market’s apparent lack of conviction. An up day is followed by a down day which is followed by a day when markets are flat. None of it is confirmed by volume and the Advance/Decline line has trended downward.

This is despite economic news, including news on inflation that seems to support the notion that interest rates could and now probably will be coming down. Probably soon.

Yet there’s a palpable ennui, a listlessness, a distinct lack of direction that’s especially noticeable in the volume numbers, which were down again yesterday.

And yet, the major indexes remain at or near all-time highs. Even the Dow, which has struggled more than the other indexes, is just two strong rally days from closing back above 40,000.

We don’t make predictions on this podcast. Indeed, we regularly ridicule those who do. And this market is, it seems to us, particularly inscrutable. But we would not be surprised, if in six months’ time, by Christmas, if stocks weren’t substantially higher than they are today.

Stock Market Report

Stocks were up on Thursday but not by much. The Advance/Decline ratio turned just positive, but volume fell. Another lackluster day.

• The Dow Jones Industrials managed a small gain. They were up thirty-six points, just less than one-tenth of one percent and they closed at 39,167.
• Likewise, the S&P 500. It was up just less than one-tenth, that’s five points on the S&P and it closed at 5,482.
• The NASDAQ Composite did slightly better. It was up three-tenths, or fifty-four points and it closed at 17,859. That’s less than four points from a new all time high for the techs.
• They’re still a long way off of their all-time high but the small caps had a pretty good day on Thursday. They were up one percent, or twenty points and closed at 2,038.

Bond Market Report

Bonds were up, rates down, pretty much across the board yesterday.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was down four basis points and it closed at 4.710%.
• The 20-year was down four ticks, and it now yields 4.531%,

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil was up $0.97, and it closed above $81.00 for the first time since April, at $81.80.
• Gold was up $26.60, and a troy ounce now changes hands at $2,336.80.
• And Bitcoin was up $423.96 and at 4:00 PM ET stood at $61,415.45.

Data, Data, and More Data

More mixed economic data.

• Initial jobless claims came in lower than expectations.
• Continuing jobless claims, not so much. They came in above expectations.4
• Durable Goods Orders—a peak inside manufacturing—surprised to the upside. Core Durable Goods Orders missed its number.
• Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter exceeded predictions.
• But, Pending Home Sales and the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now—for the 2^nd quarter missed.
• And then there were the Core PCE inflation numbers for the first quarter, and they weren’t so good. The print was a 3.7% annual inflation rate versus expectations of 3.6%. That’s a disappointment but we will get the rest of the PCE complex later this morning. Hopefully the news will be better.

Either way, we’ll have all of it for you, bright and early Monday morning, here on the Buzz.