The Buzz on Business for April 1st, 2024

The inflation numbers came in on Friday and came in just about as expected. We’ll have more on that in a minute. But markets were closed, and we could not help but wonder over the long weekend how they would react when the overnight session opened Sunday night.

Apparently, they were good enough.

Stock Market Report

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday on moderate volume.

• The Dow Jones Industrials closed within striking distance of 40,000, at 39,807. That’s a gain of a bit more than one-tenth of one percent, or 47 points.
• Likewise, the S&P 500 was up just over one-tenth of one percent, that’s six points and it closed at 5,254.
• The techs had a tougher go of it. The NASDAQ Composite was down a bit more than one-tenth of one percent. That’s 20 points, and it closed at 16,379.
• The small caps had a good day. The Russell 2000 was up a half-percent, a bit over 10 points and close at 2,125.

Bond Market Report

Rates were up on Thursday but not by much.

• The 2-year treasury closed at 4.628%. That’s up five basis points.
• The 20-year was up just one tick and closed at 4.455%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil continues to rally. It was up $1.41 and closed at $83.06. That’s the highest we’ve seen oil since late October of last year.
• Speaking of continuing to rally, gold was up $25.70 and closed at $2,212.70. That’s a new all-time high for gold.
• Bitcoin closed back above 70,000 on Thursday. At 4 pm ET on Thursday, it stood at $70,877.15, up $2,185.93.
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Friday's PCE Came in Just as Expected

Like a bad movie script, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the PCE came in more or less as expected on Friday. While we were kind of hoping for some drama, we were intrigued because inflation has been spiking in recent months; at least, it seems that way to us. And because the markets were closed on Friday and in recent weeks and months the inflation numbers have moved the markets.

The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile, came in at 0.3% for February exactly what the Street was expecting.

If we include food and energy, the PCE came in at 0.3%, slightly better than the 0.4% expectations.

Still, it needs to be said that a monthly inflation rate of 0.3% is an annual rate of almost 4%, which is way too high and well above the Fed’s self-imposed target of two percent.

There is still much more work to do on inflation.

Busy Economic Calendar This Week

Lots of economic news is expected this week.

• Today, we get construction spending for February and the Standard and Poor’s US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for March.
• We will get factory orders and the JOLTS report for February tomorrow.
• On Wednesday, we get the ADP non-farm payroll report for March. The Street expects that the economy added 149,000 new jobs in March.
• Thursday and Friday, we will get a bunch of additional labor market numbers. Any or all of these could move stocks and bonds.

We will be watching it all carefully, so all you need to do is keep it right here.