Ministry of Truth in Overdrive: Decoding the 21-Week Stock Rally

Author: William Walsh

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The Buzz on Business for March 22nd 2024

Green numbers all up and down the giant quote machine on Thursday as the post-Fed meeting rally continues.

Stock Market Report

A bunch of record new highs on good volume as advances lead decliners.

  • The Dow Jones Industrials were up 269 points and closed at 39,781. That’s a gain of seven-tenths of one percent.
  • The S&P 500 was up three-tenths of a percent. That’s 17 points, and it closed at 5,242.
  • The NASDAQ Composite was up 32 points. That’s two-tenths of a percent, and it closed at 16,402.
  • The Russell 2000 had a good day. It was up 1.1%. That’s 24 points and closed at 2,099.

Bond Market Report

Bonds were mixed on the session.

  • The yield on the 2-year treasury was up three basis points and it closed at 4.638%.
  • The 20-year was off 2 ticks and it closed at 4.531%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

  • Remember a couple of days ago when we said oil had broken out to the upside? We were wrong. Oil lost another $0.61 yesterday and a barrel now changes hands at $80.75.
  • Gold was up $22.00 a nd closed at $2,183.00.
  • Bitcoin was off $596.95 and at 4:00 PM Eastern Time, stood at $65,309.89.

What Is Moving This Market?

If this rally, now in its 21st week, which has seen the Standard and Poor’s 500 increase by almost 25%, is premised on the idea that inflation has been beaten and that rates are coming down, well, we do not understand it.

But if it is premised upon a stronger than expected economy with much stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, it makes all of the sense in the world because the economic data continues to be good. On Thursday:

  • Initial and continuing jobless claims came in better than expected.
  • The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the Standard and Poor’s US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index both came in way above expectations, a good sign for manufacturing, which has had a difficult couple of years.
  • And the rest of the housing complex rolled out Thursday morning. Existing Home Sales for February obliterated expectations. Despite high-interest rates and record-high prices, the housing market remains very strong indeed.

Lots of Economic Data Due Next Week

Not much on the economic calendar today but next week looks to be busy.

  • More data on the housing market.
  • We get durable goods orders.
  • Consumer confidence.
  • And on Friday, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, the PCE, rolls out.

Everyone here at the Ministry of Truth is on mandatory double shifts until further notice so that we can analyze all the data and report all of it to you.

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