The Buzz on Business for March 20th, 2024

Led by the Dow, stocks rallied, but volume was off, and advancers barely outpaced decliners. Given that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors began two days of meetings in the face of inflation that just might be spiking and an economy that just might be slowing, could trading on Tuesday have been a case of whistling past the graveyard?

Stock Market Report

Stocks were up yesterday, but most of the gains came from the large caps. One glaring example chipmaker Nvidia, was up, while the semiconductor index was down on the session.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the way. It was up 320 points. That’s eight-tenths of one percent and closed at 39,111.
• The S&P 500 was up six-tenths. That’s 29 points, and it closed at 5,179.
• The NASDAQ Composite was up sixty-three points and closed at 16,167, up four-tenths of one percent.
• The Russell 2000 was up six-tenths, that’s 12 points, and it closed at 2039.

Bond Market Report

Rates were mixed but mostly lower on Tuesday.

• The yield on the two-year treasury was off five basis points, and it closed at 4.687%.
• The 20-year was off two ticks, and it closed at 4.547%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil has definitely broken out to the upside. It was up another $0.30 yesterday and closed at $82.44.
• Gold was off $3.40. And a troy ounce will now set you back $2160.90.
• Bitcoin had another bad day. It was off $2533.97 and, at 4:00 PM Eastern Time, stood at $64,449.74.

Housing Data Exceeds Expectations

The housing market continues to be strong. Building permits and housing starts for February both came in well above expectations. Given the higher interest rate environment, the strength in the housing market is noteworthy.

All Eyes on the Fed

But the big story today is the Federal Reserve, which finishes up two days of meetings this afternoon. Everyone here at the Ministry of Truth will be glued to the telescreens to watch the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference which gets underway at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.

But perhaps more interesting, will be the dot plot. The dot plot is a chart of future interest rate projections or predictions made by members of the Federal Reserve Board—anonymously. The contrast between this month’s dot plot and the one from the meeting in January will be the subject of all kinds of analysis and tea leaves reading.

Recall that not that long ago. Back when it looked like inflation had been beaten, that this meeting, this meeting of the Federal Reserve, was to be the first of a series, perhaps as many as six, to cut interest rates.

We sincerely doubt that that will be the case and now fully expect the Fed to stand pat. Indeed, while we don’t make predictions here at the Buzz on Business, we would not be surprised in the least if there were no interest rate cuts in 2024.

But none of us here at the Ministry of Truth gets a vote. So, the Federal Reserve Board report, which will be released this afternoon, will be fascinating.

We will have all of the analysis for you tomorrow here on the Buzz.