The Buzz on Business for March 1st, 2024

As we huddled around the telescreen at 8:30 am ET yesterday morning and watched the economic reports update, we couldn’t help but remember, back in the day, when we worked in a brokerage office filled with hyper-competitive, testosterone-drenched semi-adolescents. All of whom would huddle around the TV—there was only one per office in those days—and wait for the news on CNBC or FNC. Literally, they would wager—a lunch, a six-pack, a twenty dollar bill on what the news would be—how it would turn out versus expectations. And it was so important that they be right.

Then, regardless of how it turned out, they’d rush to their phones and spend the day calling people like you to insist that the news demanded you buy something, or sell something, or sell something in order to buy something.

I am convicned that the biggest reason we have all of these economic reports released day after day after day is to give stock brokers a reason to call their customers. And you shouldn’t ever take those calls.

But now, for me, with the news on one monitor and the Giant Quote Machine cranked up on the other, it’s just really exciting!

Stock Market Report

Markets opened higher yesterday morning after the release of the inflation report but ground lower throughout most of the day, only to rally into the close for decent gains on decent volume.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up one-tenth of a percent. That’s 47 points and closed at 38,996.
• The S&P 500 was up a half a percent, 27 points, and closed at 5,096.
• The NASDAQ composite had a really good day. It was up nine-tenths of a percent, 144 points, and closed at 16,092. That’s a new closing high for the NASDAQ, the first time we’ve seen a new closing high for the techs since November 19th, 2021.
• The Russell 2000 also had a good day. The small caps were up seven-tenths of a percent, 13 points, and closed to 2051.

Bond Market Report

Rates were down across the board, which makes sense given the inflation and economic news.

• The 2-year Treasury closed with a yield of 4.621%. That’s off two basis points.
• The 20-year was off three ticks, and it closed at 4.515%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil was off a penny, and It closed at $78.23.
• Gold was up $12.00. And a troy ounce will now set you back $2054.70.
• Bitcoin took the day off. It was only up $837.13; at 4:00 pm Eastern Time, it stood at $61,276.72.

Is Bad News Good News? Still?

One of the things that made yesterday so interesting was that the economic news that came out throughout the morning wasn’t all that good.

• Initial and continuing jobless claims came in well above expectations.
• Pending home sales came in below expectations, well below expectations.
• The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now came in below expectations.
• The Chicago Fed’s Purchasing Managers Index came in well below expectations.

And then there was inflation. The PCE numbers precisely hit their marks. Everything came in as expected. But, from where we sit, those expectations weren’t all that great.

The month-over-month PCE came in at 0.3%, as expected, but that’s versus 0.1% last month. Month-over-month, Core PCE came in at 0.4%, as expected but versus 0.1% last month.

0.4% is 5% per year. That is way too high. But if the employment numbers, the housing numbers, the purchasing managers index, and the rest of the economic data we’ve been getting in recent days and weeks means the economy is slowing, the Fed may have to cut rates whether it wants to or not. And we may have more inflation in the future.