The Buzz on Business for February 12th, 2024

The S&P finally closed above 5,000 for the first time ever on Friday. The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite is within 210 points of a new all-time high. Small caps soared. Volume was strong. Advancers nearly doubled decliners

But the Dow was down--down on an up day. The yield curve inverted, again. And we can't shake the feeling that something is going on just below the surface that we can't see or explain.

Maybe it’s the fact that Taylor Swift, after taking over the NFL, will now be coming for Wall Street, or, god forbid, this podcast.

Stock Market Report

Lots and lots of green numbers all up and down the giant quote machine. At the close of trading on Friday afternoon.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average was not among them. The Dow closed at 38,672, off 55 points, or one-tenth of 1%.
• As we said at the open, the S&P 500 had a big day. It was up twenty-nine points, almost 6/10 of a percent, and closed at 5027.
• The NASDAQ Composite closed at 15,991. That's up 197 points, or 1.3% on the day.
• Likewise, The small-cap Russell 2000 was up 1 1/2 percent. It closed at 2009, up 30 points.
• The RSP. That's the equal weight S&P 500. Index Fund. Was up a small amount. Just over 110th of 1%.
• The SOXL, that's the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index with three-to-one leverage, was up 5.8%.

Bond Market Report

Bonds were mixed, although rates were mostly higher on the session Friday.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was up three basis points and closed at 4.486%.
• The 20-year was also up two ticks. It closed at 4.481%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil had a small gain. Just 14 cents and closed at $76.54.
• Gold was off $11.10, and a troy ounce now changes hands at $2038.60.
• Bitcoin finished a really good week with a really good day. It was up 4.7% and closed at $47,503 up to $1,178 on Friday.

Technical Whispers and Grumpy Old Men: Unease Grows Despite Strong Performance

There was no real news on Friday, nothing on the economic calendar. Two companies reported earnings. One green #1 red number. Neither will move the market. Either way. So instead, we're gonna speculate about our psychological state. Such as it is, and the ennui we are experiencing regarding this market.

Rallies, Like podcasters, get old. They’re supposed slow down. They get long in the tooth. And then sometimes they fall and can't get up. As rallies go, this one is old. It started back in October. It's well into its fourth month without a down month. Indeed only one down week. Indeed in the last 72 trading days, only 22 down days and the S&P has rallied over 21% over that time. Slowing down? The S&P was up almost two percent last week on no news.

And while earnings have been good—we'll have more to say about that throughout the week—and the economic news has likewise come in mostly above expectations, the bald fact remains, the Fed is not accommodating the markets here. Indeed there was a highly technical story out this past week about a stealth restriction operation that the Fed had undertaken. They’re tightening! And as we have said many times: stocks need declining rates to make sustained gains.

Plus, we’re more than a bit concerned about the fact that the S&P, the NASDAQ, and the Russell 2000 all had great weeks and great months so far in February, but the Dow lagged a bit. Divergences often foretell reversals.

Or maybe we just need to be grouped in with all the rest of the grumpy old men!