The Buzz on Business for August 23rd, 2024

On Wednesday of this week, the US Labor Department revised its calculation for the number of new jobs created in the twelve months ending in March of this year from 2.9 million to something a bit less than 2.1 million.

This is a pretty dramatic downward revision—the biggest such revision in almost twenty years—and is probably largely responsible for the selloff in stocks we’ve seen over the last two days. It represents an almost 30% reduction in the number of new jobs. But there are over 161 million people working in the country. In that context, this revision is less than one half of one percent. Not nothing but not the end of the world either.

Our first thought was that if your organization publishes an important number that people rely upon to make and support important financial decisions and that number turns out to be off by thirty percent, somebody needs to get fired.

And they won’t.

Stock Market Report

Stocks opened higher—gapped higher at the open—but quickly turned tail and sold off all day long and closed at or near their lows of the day.

• The Dow Jones Industrials were off by 178 points and closed at 40,713, for a 0.40% loss
• The S&P 500 was off by 50 points, that’s 0.90% and it closed at 5,571,
• The NASDAQ Composite was off over 1.61%--a rough day for the techs. It closed at 17,619, down 300 points.
• Likewise, the Russell 2000. It was off 1.0% and closed at 2,150, down 21 points.

Bond Market Report

Rates were up, across the board, in what appeared to us as a half-hearted flight to safety.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was up 8 basis points and closed at 4.018%.
• The 20-year was up 5 ticks, and it starts the day today at 4.230%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil got back some of its recent losses. It was up $0.96, and a barrel now changes hands at $72.90
• Rates were up so gold must be down, and it was $31.10, and a troy ounce will now set you back $2,518.40.
• And Bitcoin was off $489.07, and at 4:00 PM ET stood at $60,353.57,

Beyond Job Growth: Other Economic Indicators

Speaking of the labor market, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims came in slightly better than expected but a win is a win. These data swung wildly during and immediately after the pandemic and have been in an uptrend in recent months but look to us to finally returning to pre-pandemic norms.

Likewise, Existing Home Sales for July exceeded expectations by a small margin.

We also got some numbers out of manufacturing and, well, you know how the story goes. The S&P US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index missed expectations—expectations that weren’t particularly encouraging.

Today, we get New Home Sales and Building Permits—more data out of the housing market which has been front and center in recent weeks. As well as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech to the Jackson Hole confab, put on every year by the Federal Reserve.

Next week, the news picks up a bit and includes the release of the PCE complex—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

We will do what we do if you will do what you do and keep it right here on the Buzz!