The Buzz on Business for June 18^th 2024

Stocks rallied on Monday, and in some cases to new all-time highs. We’ll go over all the numbers in just a minute. But normally when stocks rally, especially to new highs, we typically see expanding volume and a advancing stocks exceed declining stocks.

We say that the rally has been confirmed by volume or, typically and, confirmed by breadth.

This is especially true when the rally follows good economic or earnings news. FOMO: Fear of missing out, is nowhere a stronger human motivation than on Wall Street! No investor, no trader wants to be on the sidelines when the economy is strong, earnings are good, and stocks are making new highs.

And yet, that is the situation in which we find ourselves. We’re going to put a chart in the show notes that illustrates the magnitude of this convergence.

The only explanation that occurs to us is that we’ve been in a strong bull market for almost nine months with hardly a significant pull back of any kind, and the rally that began back in October is just exhausted.

This is an unsatisfactory explanation but, for now, we cannot come up with a better one.

Stock Market Report

Green numbers all up and down the Giant Quote Machine on Monday. Well, except volume, which fell again and the Advance/Decline Ratio which, likewise, fell again, as this rally narrows.

• After four straight down days, the Dow Jones Industrials had a decent showing on Monday. They were up 189 points, that’s about a half percent and they closed at 38,778.
• The S&P 500 was up 0.75% or forty-two points and they closed at 5,473, a new all-time high.
• The NASDAQ Composite had a good day. It closed at a new all-time high of 17,857. That a gain of one percent or 168 points.
• And the Russell 2000 joined in this time. It was up 16 points and closed at 2,022. That’s a gain of eight-tenths of one percent.

Bond Market Report

Rates were up across the board on Monday.

• The yield on the 2-year treasury was up six basis points and it now yields 4.768%.
• The 20-year was likewise up six ticks, and it yields 4.525%.

Oil, Gold, and Bitcoin

• Oil rallied on Monday. It was up $1.35 and closed at $79.79.
• Gold was off $13.10, and a troy ounce now changes hands at 2,335.00 even.
• And Bitcoin was up $1,139.68 and at 4:00 PM ET stood at $66,715.92.

Manufacturing Looking Good? Finally?

Nothing much on either the Earnings or Economic calendars yesterday. The Empire State Manufacturing Index came in well above expectations, well above its average for the last two years and at its highest level since February. Manufacturing keeps teasing us with occasional good numbers before settling back into mediocrity. Maybe, just maybe this time is for real??

Today, we get another peak inside manufacturing as the Industrial Production numbers for May are released. All fingers are crossed here at the Ministry of Truth.

We also get the Retail Sales complex and the latest release of the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now report. Expectations for these data are all good. Maybe, just maybe, Wall Street will awaken.

Either way, we’ll have all of it for you, tomorrow, here on the Buzz.