Mixed Economic News Sends Stocks Up, Rates Up, and Oil Back Above $70

Author: William Walsh

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The Buzz on Business for December 11th, 2023

A bunch of economic reports, primarily dealing with the labor market, were released before Friday’s opening bell; on the whole, and they don’t show much weakness.

All of the relevant numbers are listed in the table below.

Stocks boomed on the news, had some second thoughts as the morning wore on, but rallied throughout the rest of the day, closed near their highs for the day and week, and at a new closing high for the year.

Market Report

     

      • The Dow Jones Industrials were up a stout 130 points, almost 4/10ths of a percent, and closed at 36,248.

      • The S+P 500 was up nineteen points, also 4/10ths, and closed at 4,604.

      • The Nasdaq Composite was up almost 5/10ths of a percent and closed at 14,404. That’s a gain of sixty-seven points.

      • The S+P Retailers, the XRT, did not close at a new high for the week or year. It was up a penny and starts the week at 67.08

    Bonds also had a tumultuous day, as traders were unsure what to make of the economic news. But make no mistake, rates were up and across the board.

       

        • The yield on the two-year treasury was up thirteen basis points on the day. It now yields 4.723%

        • The yield on the twenty-year was up but just five ticks, further exacerbating the negative yield curve—which we discussed in our premium published on Sunday. It starts the week yielding 4.487%

      Oil and Gold

          • Oil was up a buck, sixty-four, and is back above $70.00. A barrel now changes hands at $71.20

          • Gold sold off in response to the news. It was down $31.90 and closed at $2014.50

        Summary of the Economic Data


        The table below highlights the numbers that came out Friday morning.

          Actual Expectations Last Month
        Non-Farm Payrolls 199K 180K 150K
        Avg. Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
        Avg. Work Week 34.4 hrs 34.3 34.3
        Labor Force Part Rate 62.8% 62.7% 62.7%
        Unemployment Rate 3.7% 3.9% 3.9%
        Private Payrolls 150K 153K 85K

        The University of Michigan Sentiment numbers were also released, and all were really good: Inflation Expectations, Current Conditions, and Consumer Sentiment all exceeded expectations.

        We get the release of the Consumer Price Index complex tomorrow and Wednesday. Expectations are for 0.0% inflation Month over month. We also get a statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

        It looks like a fun week. We will report on all of the numbers and what it all means here at Financial Animal.

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